The NPD Group claims that Google’s Android operating system has overtaken Apple’s iPhone, with RIM’s BlackBerry remaining as the most popular smartphone OS. Is this a narrow view of one battle, or harbinger of the unthinkable, with Apple losing the smartphone war?

NDP’s latest numbers have RIM’s BlackBerry with 36% market share, followed by the Android OS (28%) and Apple at 21%. According to NDP, a big part of BlackBerry’s success is the marketing – and amazing feat given Apple’s reputation. Specifically, in order to compete with the iPhone in the United States, Verizon Wireless has expanded its buy-one-get-one offer beyond RIM devices to now include all of their smartphones.

As well, Android received a bit shot in the arm: Verizon launched the Droid late in 2009, backing it with up $100 million in marketing. And Android handset distribution blossomed from one to all four major US carriers.

Meanwhile, the iPhone is walled in with AT&T, which has been good news for both of them, so far: NPD’s research shows that AT&T has 32% of the smartphone market, with Verizon on its heals at 30%.

But success, it seems, comes to those who play with others. Could Apple really be setting itself up for the same disastrous wipe-out that occurred when its desktop OS – so very, very far ahead of the competition – completely gave up the market to Wintel boxes. Could Apple really fall victim to its own arrogance again?

As it stands, the Android OS runs on an array of third-party devices, and the iPhone OS...well...it only runs on the iPhone. The App Store has kept things interesting – and open – on the development front, but Android’s gains have come on very fast. This can only spell trouble for Apple.

Apple may yet again be on the right, then the wrong, side of history, and for many of the same reasons it lost out on the PC wars, despite its superior product: it has a shallow development platform, and it costs too much.